Admiral Canute lectures the Iranian tide
Tuesday, July 8, 2008 at 11:55PM In the escalating war of words between Iran and the U.S., the Iranian government threatened to shut down oil shipments through the Persian Gulf if attacked. Iranian General Mohammed Ali Jafari said, “It is natural that when a country is attacked it uses all of its capabilities against the enemy, and definitely our control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would be one of our actions.”
Since 40% of the world oil supply comes through the Gulf, this is no small thing. We would no longer be complaining about $4 gasoline because there wouldn’t be any to buy.
In response, Vice-Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet said, “They will not close it... They will not be allowed to close it.”
There are two problems with Vice-Admiral Cosgriff’s statement, and they are named Kowsar and Noor.
The Kowsar and Noor are Iranian knockoffs of Chinese tactical cruise missiles. The Kowsar has a relatively short range and a small explosive payload, but Hezbollah managed to cripple an Israeli warship with one during their recent dustup in Lebanon. The Noor is a bigger issue. Based on the Chinese C-802 anti-ship cruise missile, it has a range of 200 kilometers, enough to cut off the Straight of Hormuz and a good portion of the Gulf of Oman. Iran reportedly bought 60 of the C-802s from China and deployed them at Qeshm, in the narrows of the Straight. Then it started making its own.
These Noor/C-802 missiles are nearly impossible to stop. They travel close to Mach 1 at less than 30 feet off the water, dropping to half that altitude as they close on the target. The missile starts swerving back and forth on the final approach to dodge anti-missile fire, and then dives for the ship’s waterline. The guidance package is difficult to jam with electronic countermeasures. They are supposed to have a 98% hit ratio.
What this means is that if the Iranians get even one missile launched, somebody loses a tanker. If the U.S. fleet is within 200 km of the Iranian coast (or an Iranian ship or helicopter), we end up with a crippled aircraft carrier, or perhaps the first sinking of a major ship in modern U.S. naval history. Of course, in the event of a conflict our forces would be trying to find and destroy all these missiles. The problem is that we can never know if we have gotten them all. Just one would ruin your day. If the Iranians declared a missile barrier across the Straight of Hormuz, no tanker company would test it.
A shooting war between Iran and the U.S. would be the height of idiocy for both sides. The U.S. would face increased attacks in Iraq from angry Shia militias and skyrocketing oil prices, as well as the further overstretching of a beyond overstretched military (and budget). The Iranians would face total international isolation if they shut off the Persian Gulf. For them it would be the nuclear option.
Nevertheless, as both countries rattle sabers and trade angry talk, it is good to remember this: They could do what they say they might do, and we couldn’t stop them.
Reader Comments (3)
Heretic--
Yeah, but I immediately imagine what the Admiral couldn't say out loud.
My understanding of our President and Vice-President is that they would be happy to drop a nuclear bomb or two on Iran. Talk about ruining a whole day; hell, how about a millenium?
And, depending on the prevailing winds, (and thinkig relatively long-term) they could take care of a few geo-political problems as a "collateral event."
Yours in minor heresy,
Don
Heretic--
Yeah, but I immediately imagine what the Admiral couldn't say out loud.
My understanding of our President and Vice-President is that they would be happy to drop a nuclear bomb or two on Iran. Talk about ruining a whole day; hell, how about a millenium?
And, depending on the prevailing winds, (and thinkig relatively long-term) they could take care of a few geo-political problems as a "collateral event."
Yours in minor heresy,
Don
Launch a nuclear attack against Iran, and that region burns (literally and figuratively) for the next hundred years. In other words, it's not going to happen.